The NFL Preview Extravaganza!

This is the first time I've ever seen a new one.
I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to do it.
I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to do it.
I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to do it.
It is seven o'clock on the east coast and is four o'clock on the west coast.
It is a 20th of August in the year of our Lord, 2023, season 14, episode 5, 640 times.
You have been welcomed to the clubhouse podcast live from remote locations because that's how we get down.
Welcome. Don is still on another continent for another week and a half.
So welcome. My name is Rob. I am the executive producer of the clubhouse podcast.
And as we learned into the end of our previous show, I coordinated today.
Mountain Dew zero in there.
That way for me is my co-host and a man that gets that part of it right every time.
And I can't seem to from an undisclosed location in the middle of a desert.
He is out.
Technically, I am in the meadows, but it's so close.
It even deals like football weather out here.
I am stoked.
This is one of my favorite shows of the year because it is the NFL extravaganza.
I put too much on it.
Sorry.
I'm using a different board and it's farther away from me.
I need to move it closer to me.
But yeah, it's our NFL preview extravaganza copyright around the horn.
But we had for those of you wondering we do have Don's picks.
We did this last year.
Didn't go as one.
So we planned this year.
And it is it is time for life to begin.
Only one more Sunday, actually two more Sundays after today until football counts.
And with as much as I love college football, we ain't talking college football.
We're talking about the NFL.
We're talking about life beginning.
We are talking about our long national nightmare being over.
Yes.
We are ready for eighteen twenty one-ish weeks of life.
Well, we're only a we're if you count the preseason games.
We're having weekend football from now until next March.
I don't count.
But my point being, it exists.
I do miss the old school, but I understand the new school of preseason.
And my degeneracy does kick in.
I just I'm so ready for football accounts.
Yes. And like I said last week.
Hard knocks you're going to give me the rope of dope this year.
I'm not getting hard knocks this year.
I'm not doing it.
Probably I'm so probably going to draft air and Rogers.
But I'm going to need you to put a pin in that because I have some facts for you.
You will not sway me.
I have made a decision.
I'm not getting rope a dope by hard knocks again this year.
But what I will say.
Is they are at least showing some of the flaws in the system more than they have done in the first two episodes in a very long time.
Which I have.
I believe it was a Shakespearean quote that says me thinks thou doth protest too much.
I'm not getting no, no.
Not just because it's my division.
No.
I love your Robert Salah.
I'm a big fan.
But I like MCDC and they let me down to.
I love this show.
I'm not letting you, I'm not letting you rope a dope me.
All right.
So before we get started, we do want to talk a little bit.
If you are a fan of the Sunday ticket, things are a little bit different this year.
In case you missed it, welcome back from the cave.
Google now owns the Sunday ticket.
So there's really now no reason to have direct TV.
But apparently Alex and I were talking in pre show.
There's a little bit of this I don't know.
Now, if you missed it, well, do we talk about that last week or was it week before in tech talk?
We've talked about it a couple.
I am now a YouTube TV subscriber.
And I am all in.
I have enjoyed everything about YouTube TV.
It checks all the boxes.
I'm going to get red zone.
Although I found out this week, I can actually get the NFL network app.
And with my YouTube TV log and I can watch red zone there too if I need to.
But either way, I'm ready.
When I was watching, I was in Pittsburgh this past week.
And when you have to watch live TV and there's nothing on, you'll watch NFL network.
And they were showing commercials for red zone.
And I was ready to run through a wall.
But one of the updates that we did have from the last time we talked about it is.
Rob having YouTube TV, I do not.
But I have been a long time YouTube premium subscriber.
And I have been getting the invites for Sunday ticket independent of YouTube TV.
So they have the same deal.
We're not 100% sure how that will work.
But if you want to know how long he's been a YouTube premium subscriber, you will have that ability.
Are you being offered the discount?
Yes, the $50 off.
And if you want to know how long he's been a YouTube premium subscriber, he was telling me about season one of Cobra Kai.
That's how long he has been a YouTube premium subscriber.
I remember it.
I was there.
But if you are, if you subscribe now, you can get $50 off, which makes the price for NFL Sunday ticket $250 still too expensive for me.
I still believe that you want to make a bazillion more dollars YouTube.
I will pay you a hundred bucks a year to be guaranteed my dolphin games.
And that's all I want.
I'll pay you an extra 50 for the bucks if I need to.
But my thing is I need my dolphins games.
Now granted, because of that, I will live on Red Zone channel.
And it is, it is an invention.
It's like fire, the wheel, Tivo Red Zone.
That's the list.
It's almost football season, baby.
I love this.
I love this excitement.
Now this is the most excited I get for any thing all year because I have been, you know, we've said it before we'll say it again.
I grew up in South Florida.
The dolphins were all we had until the late 80s.
The heat were terrible for the first five years.
Football, football is life.
When you're required to give Ronnie Sikley all star games.
That's how bad the heat work.
Can I tell you I now have another thing I'm now, I'm not watching and I blame Phil and Shannon.
Go for it.
I'm watching Tacoma FD now and I blame them.
Okay, let them have the blame.
I've been telling you about it the whole time.
I watched the nap.
They made me watch an episode with them the other night and I'm like.
Well, there is another crossover for the other show we're going to have to talk about with that.
I was like, I've already watched all season one.
Now, all right, let's do this.
As my focus audience, Rob.
I want your input here.
We're going to go alphabetically through the division.
And then through the order of 2022's finish within the division, which I was terribly.
Would you prefer to start knowing what that over under on the wins is or do you want the facts first?
I want to make my predictions cold.
So I will make my number and then you can give me the facts afterwards because I'm going with my gut this year.
So you won't you want the betting number first, make your prediction and then the facts.
Alex will give us the numbers from an undisclosed location in the desert where he is.
And we will take the over or the under on number of wins for said team.
So as you called it your division before the AFC East comes first.
Great division football.
2022's division champion worth a buffalo bills.
There 2023 over under is ten and a half.
That seems very aggressive.
Now, after I give mine, go ahead and give dawns if you want to.
Absolutely, because that's not going to move because even with the facts, he's already given his and he's in a different continent.
And I'm correct.
Well, I see on this side of the meridian.
No.
Oh, I thought he was.
Buffalo was a team that I have watched closely the last few years.
Of course, because they're my division, I've watched them most of my life.
Do I like the fact that their new stadium is now naming rights by the company I work for? I do not.
I was not consulted.
I also have a soccer stadium in Pittsburgh called high martini tangent.
I think they're going to have a tougher road this year.
I'm going to hesitantly take the under because I believe they will stop at ten.
It will be it will be the thinnest of margins, but I'm taking the under.
That makes perfect sense.
If you would like the odd factoid that has nothing to do with on the field, except for maybe karmic influence in your favor.
Okay.
In their new indoor facility.
They put up a banner.
That said, Buffalo football.
With a Lombardi trophy on it, which they have never won.
Buffalo football does not equal is what it should say.
But at that same time, there's some karma work in there.
In a great 30 for 30 by the way about that.
But one thing Buffalo did do was they led the NFL in scoring offense and scoring defense.
Over the last three years.
That surprises me last year does not.
Yeah, no, it was crazy.
Now, one of those things that really goes with it is Josh Allen backpacking that team when he has to.
Now, the interesting factoid that I found in that scope was there has only been two quarterbacks ever to top the league more than once against pressure.
So whether or not they have to scramble, whether or not they have to throw on the run, but avoiding the pressure and having a successful play.
One of those is Tom Brady.
The other is Josh Allen.
So pressuring him doesn't work.
You got to find another aspect.
Now, one of the things you could think about was well, he only has Stefan digs and what else to throw to, especially with them having drafted Dalton can gade as the tight end.
Well, I want to go back to this episode last year where I was talking up gave Davis as a quality player.
And then he disappeared for pretty much the entire season, the least football name ever gave.
But the biggest part of that was he had a high ankle brain during week two and proceeded to play on it the entire season.
That can be good.
Buffalo might be better this year on offense, but.
The biggest problem they have is they have amazing coverage in the safety position and at their number one corner.
But they get killed by wide receivers to three and down the line, which is why teams like Cincinnati have been their ultra kryptonite because they have multiple receivers.
So Rob has it at 10 slightly under.
Don has them winning 13 games.
And I have them winning 12. So we are both over. You were the loan under sir.
You feel bad that you all will lose that particular.
Well, I did knock it down to 12 after the karma of the banter.
Are you ready for your dolphins?
I am I am actually incredibly ready for my dolphins.
A lot of moves in the off season.
Some of it's panning out. Some of it's getting a little bit wonky because of the injuries that they're they're dealing with right now.
But.
I have faith right now. I have a level of faith in my dolphins. I have not had any very, very long time.
This resurgence has been fun to watch.
I will never I am right or die with this team. I have been with this team since I was seven years old and had to make a decision.
So bring it on nine and a half games.
I'll take the over. I think they win the division with how many?
They'll win it by a game because they'll I think they'll hit 11.
Oh, James is here. James is here and he greases me even though it says just stop.
Okay. Well, sadly, the dolphins have not won the playoff game since 2000.
We're due.
I want no.
Did they not win a game in the late arts in the playoffs?
Nope.
Need to see the paper work on this.
I've done the research, but feel free. We're due.
Now you're good. Mike McDaniel has proven to be a genius with the offense and adapting Shanahan scheme to let's call it a lesser talented quarterback into a who makes good decisions and fits with the mold.
He is as Homer Simpson once said, crazy like a fox.
However,
the real problem and James just called out what's going to be the problem.
That offensive line was horrendous.
The moment Aaron Armstead went out who is dealing with injury right now.
It went from a like a 78% success rate to 22%.
I stand by my prediction.
However,
in that same scope with bad quarterback play, we talked about how Tyree kill was not going to be as good of a player leaving Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes.
He's that career highs in everything.
We had a year last year.
It's the Skylar Thompson era, baby.
The biggest thing that will make the dolphins go once they get to that point.
Most are going to get hurt. Wilson's going to get hurt or they're just not going to be as good.
In that draft pick,
Devon A. Kane is going to run rough shot with that Shanahan offense whenever he finally gets the ball to go.
However,
Devon and I both have the under at eight wins for Don and nine wins for me.
So not a bad season, still a winning season on my part, Don has them slightly below.
This is a great dartsly because we have great grouping in our predictions.
But what I really like is the fact that we're not, we're already two in and none of it is blanket.
I love it.
Now, speaking of blanket,
Boston, the New England Patriots.
Seven and a half.
How many you got, Rob?
I will take the over here because the Patriots are still the Patriots.
They are not going to win less than games than that.
I just, I don't, I don't see it happening.
I don't think.
I would pick them third in the division because they're struggling so hard.
But I, they're not going to have a, they're not going to have a terrible season.
It's just not going to be a great season.
Mac Jones is starting, really starting to come and do his own.
And we'll talk about that piece of it when we get to the Jeff.
But I think it's a bit of my tongue.
I just nobody fears the Patriots anymore.
And that with that fear factor being gone, we can see how it is affected that team.
How many wins?
I'll give them seven.
That's under.
That's what I said.
Oh, you said over.
No, they'll be under.
It'll be at seven.
Okay.
Because again, I don't see them going 500, but they'll, they won't miss it by much.
Well, that jinx is us because we all have it as under.
However, would you be interested to note that you have them winning more games than either of us?
Because Don has them winning six.
I have them winning five.
Woo.
Now, five and go in that same.
What's that five and 12 for the Patriots?
Yes, I do.
It's a tough road this year, but.
That debacle they had last year of, I don't know.
Let's have co-offensive coordinators who have never coached offense.
But they get Bill O'Brien back, so there should be some improvements, especially since Tom Brady left New England.
They are last in first downs and 29th in past TDs.
It blows my mind that they're that bad, but.
They should be better than last year, and I still have them at last in the division.
James says as long as the jets are in the division, he has two wins.
Put a pin in that one, but.
If you want your fantasy spin on the Patriots, look no further than Ramondra Stevenson.
Oh, but they signed a Zekio Elliott.
Yeah, he's their new alignment.
Did you see the size of him when he showed up?
Anyways, Ramondra Stevenson had a 17% target share and 15 touches in all the three games last year.
And here's a fun fact for you, even with those terrible offenses since 2017.
Patriots running backs have averaged more PPR points.
That's points per reception and fantasy than any other team on bad offenses.
And for those of you that may be joining us for the first time or the first time in, you know, the last 11 months.
Alex and I do play in a fantasy league together.
He is our commissioner.
I was just close last year.
And I was closer.
And this year, I have the second pick in the draft very excited.
You know, be very curious to see who that is.
Aaron.
As long as the jets are in the division, there's two wins.
So you keep saying that you're not going to get hoodwinked or rope.
I'm not going to get rope adoped by hard knocks this year.
So myself going into this.
I love Aaron Rogers.
I love Robert Salah.
Love the show every year.
I get hyped up by whoever the team is.
That's on hard knocks.
And I'm not going to let it happen to you.
I want to do this one just a little bit differently.
Even though I have a green pen.
How many wins for the jets this year?
Did me the over under?
No, no, I want.
I want to hear your prediction.
I need to pull up the schedule and everything else.
We got to keep this moving.
What is the overrun?
What is the overrun?
I'm not going to let it happen to you.
See, when we do America's favorite game show,
you won't let me hear this.
That anymore.
But I say most of the stats before we get there.
Nine and a half.
Under.
Oh, under aggressive under.
They are not getting to 10.
They're not getting the double digit wins this year.
Six.
Who?
Because this is.
I am going on.
Very good.
My hard knocks and James's with me.
I'm going on my hard knocks logic.
Every year.
I believe in hard knocks,
and the team does not.
So this year.
I'm not believing in hard knocks.
So when they do nothing,
I don't feel bad.
That's my logic.
I warned you about stats, did I not?
You always do and I refuse to believe it.
Well, I'm going to start with one simple one.
So the last time the Jets had a quarterback throw for 4,000 yards, 1867.
I am hesitating because it was 1967.
So it was no name it before they won a Super Bowl.
However, in the entirety of their existence, the best graded passer in Jets history is Mark
Sanchez in 2010.
His, that Jets, that was Winnipeg.
No, they exceeded my button for work today because I left my eye and died.
That best graded season was 72.1 in 2010.
Rogers had an ostensibly bad year last year.
He was 75.9.
So in one of his worst seasons, he'd still be the best Jets passer ever.
Now, the biggest thing for the Jets was that their defense allowed the 4th fewest points
per game last year.
The last time Aaron Rogers had a top 8 defense, not top 4, top 8 defense was 2010.
That was the year he won the Super Bowl.
And the Jets haven't made the playoffs since then.
You're not swaying me.
I stand by my prediction.
This will be the one year that it had it completely blows the wheel off.
But I'm standing by my prediction.
Well, because I'm a man of principle.
But you are in company has done also has them under at eight.
Oh, Sean's agreeing with me.
I have them winning double digits at 10.
The beautiful view on that island by yourself, my friend.
Hey, I had a few of those last year.
I was right.
I believe one of us called Philly all the way.
Anyways.
So from the looks of it.
You have the dolphins winning the division.
Don has the bills winning the division.
And I have the bills winning the division.
Interestingly enough.
It looks like depending on how the rest of this goes, you'll have two teams from the division in the playoffs.
I'll have two teams in the division in the playoffs.
Don will only have the bills.
Can I give you before we move to the next division hit me.
So I watched a lot of NFL network this past week while I was out of town.
They had a really cool trivia question on good morning football on Thursday.
You with me.
I'm there since 2000 so 2000 and forward.
Okay.
Who is the what quarterback whose first pass attempt was a touchdown.
Through had the longest touchdown as in that cat.
You with me so far.
So you're saying who's the first touchdown pass?
No, first pass.
They're like their first pass attempt was a touchdown.
Okay.
Have a rookie.
Okay.
Who's was the longest?
Do you not know?
That he ice in 2008 through a 62 yard touchdown pass.
Now, you know who was in fifth and tied for fourth technically because fourth and fifth were tied.
Okay.
Fifth was Tibo.
Three yards to show you that disparate.
I would I picked somebody else.
I'm like, couldn't be Matt Ryan and then they showed the footage Michael.
I thought it was Matt Ryan.
Was it Roddy White?
Yes.
It's a matter of fact it was.
I just saw that I was like, I think that is fascinating.
Yeah.
You love one offs like that.
Oh, absolutely.
All right.
Alphabetically speaking.
We are now moving to Don's division.
The AFC North.
Where the Cincinnati Bengals won the division handily before falling in the AFC championship game when Patrick Mahomes finally beat them.
James said the jets might actually be.
I can't wait for all that crow eating.
Can I be honest though?
Yes.
I can say honestly, you have not lived until you sat through a dolphins game with James Harding and I in the same room.
It is absolute chaos.
That's why he is one of my best friends.
That is why he was a groom's been in my wedding.
I have known James since I was 14 years old.
We were in marching band together.
So.
We might have to pick up pace a little bit because it took a little bit longer.
AFC North.
Let's do it.
It's more Bengals won the division this year.
It's 11 and a half.
What do you got?
For the Bengals.
Yes.
11 and a half seems aggressive.
I'm going to take the under nine.
I think looking through this division.
I think they still probably have the best shot at winning the division again.
But it's not going to be an impressive year for this division.
Well, I have a factoid for later on, but I'll say it right now at the start of the division.
The Vegas line on every team has them with a winning record.
It's never happened.
So every single one of them has a each and a AFC North team having a winning record.
I don't.
But Joe burrow has played for two full seasons.
His half of the Bengals all time playoff.
Not shocked by that.
But the biggest thing is keeping him healthy even though he has a bit of a hurt calf right now.
And their biggest signing while under the radar a little bit was Orlando Brown.
A very consistent left tackle to protect burrows blindside.
But they also took him from the chiefs.
Put a pin in that.
So we remember last year when I said Justin Jefferson will be the number one receiver in the NFL.
And it's not going to be close who I had on my fantasy team.
Yeah, you're welcome.
This year it's Jamar chase.
He ruined my fantasy day two years ago.
I remember it like it was yesterday.
I am not going to disagree with you there.
You know, that's how a little thing comes in White receiver twelve is a starter easily at White receiver one.
He did that last year missing five games.
He will be the number one as long as burrows healthy.
He will be the number one so you have them at nine in the under.
Don has them at eleven in the under.
I have looked at the schedule and the AFC North has a very,
very, very soft matchup. I have them winning 15. Good night. I didn't like it when I looked at it,
either. But interestingly enough with that same soft schedule, the Ravens who came in second
have 10 and a half full on under. I don't care what the Ravens tried to tell me. I don't care
that OBJ is saying how much he's enjoying playing with this team. The Ravens are chaos right now.
They're trying, to me, they're trying to stack the deck and they're stacking the wrong deck.
They're stacking the deck for tiddly wings when they should be stacking the deck for high-stakes
poker. I am full on taking the under on this and I will be shocked if they get to 7.
Now is that your number? 7 is my number. All right, it surprised me dog on it.
Well, Don also has them at under at 10.
Then brace yourself. I have them winning 13. So you're saying between Cincinnati and Baltimore,
that's 25 wins? 28. Wow, that's aggressive. Yes it is. Right, it's aggressive. But when you play
the AFC South and the NFC South and those teams are terrible, I was shocked when I came out with it
too. But let me explain why. Are you familiar with Todd Monkin? Refresh my memory. He is their new
offensive coordinator. Now, where you would know him best was the pre Brady Tampa Bay years.
Where by hooker by crook, no matter who was playing quarterback, including Fitzmagic,
they were throwing for yardage and scoring, but they still couldn't win because the defense hadn't
been solidified. So Todd Monkin, most recently, took a plotting Georgia Bulldogs offense and turned
them into the college football juggernaut that they were the last few years. Prior to that,
he was in Cleveland for that one season when Baker Mayfield looked like the second coming.
AKA the same Baker Mayfield that it will be quarterbacking the Buccaneers.
Now, if you would like some specific statistics to those Tampa Bay years before Brady,
they were all team records. It was ranked third and first downs in the NFL, second in passing yards
per game, first in third down conversion. Now, that's a big one. All of that under Monkin
and immediately fell off the table the moment he was gone. So, if you want your fantasy spin on it,
Lamar Jackson resigned for less money than he probably could have gotten just to play in this
offense. They're all fair points, but it looks great on paper, but players play.
Yeah, and their defense was actually pretty spectacular last year, but people don't remember it
because they kept losing games because they had no offense. So, yes, I have 28 wins between
your top two, both playoff teams. Now, they can't all be winners because here come the Steelers.
Eight and a half, sir.
I should probably look at the schedules as you're approaching them. We'll probably help me.
That would help. Steelers. Steelers, Steelers, Steelers, on the ticket.
Buyweek is the middle of October.
Like you said, they are playing the both divisions in the South.
Who are garbage?
They're not playing the NFC South.
Because I don't see Tampa Bay in here. They played them in preseason.
It might be the East.
Anyways, they're not playing Miami for the NFC East, maybe.
Nope, that's what I was saying.
I know it's a week division in the NFC.
The NFC West, because they're playing Seattle and San Francisco in week one.
Yeah, San Francisco is the only tough matchup in that division, really.
What's the overrunner?
Nine or eight and a half.
Yeah, I'll give them that.
This one and for a paper.
Yeah, so I'll take the over.
Because when you're playing teams like Arizona,
but they're also playing, oh, but they're playing at home.
But they are playing the package.
They're going to move this board up.
Yeah, I mean, I'll give them 10 wins.
I think that they're due.
I think that I also want to watch Don Scorm when they win end games because he hates Tom one
so much, which and I still to this day don't understand why.
Because again, never had a losing season as long as he has coached that team.
James says Cincinnati has done nothing to end up anywhere but first.
I'm not going to debate that.
This is going to be one of the more fun divisions to watch.
I think this year.
But I think Pittsburgh is going to surprise a lot of people because
from a mass audience standpoint, they have been very quiet the last few years because Cincinnati
stole all the spotlight.
True.
I think Pittsburgh is going to reach up and bite a lot of people this year.
So I'll give you that.
So the interesting thing was is yes, for the 16th straight season to start his career,
Tom one had a winning record despite a historically bad offense at 18.1 points per game.
Pick it and pick ends are going to be better.
And I agree with you.
They could really surprise in any other division.
But in this division,
I have them at eight wins.
Don has them at seven.
So I think Don judges them harshly.
I just I put no stock in Don's because I know I do the same thing with the giants.
It's not that I don't put any stock in what Don's saying.
I just think that Don.
It's so it's very strange his fandom in the NFL.
Because James thinks that that Pittsburgh and Baltimore will slug it out for a wild card.
He's this is the one team that he roots for that I feel like the glasses have empty all the time.
Have you not heard him talk about the pirates?
Well, the pirates deserve it.
But there is no team he roots for that isn't half empty.
It's a Pittsburgh thing.
But this is a team that
again, hasn't had a winning season in the better part of three or hasn't had the losing season.
I apologize in the better part of three decades.
This is a team that's always going to be competitive is it's it's one of my favorite Tom one
stories that when he was talking to and I can't remember who the quarterback was.
But he was just like, this is why I can't have you on my team.
Because for me to have you on my team, I have to lose enough games to draft you.
And that mentality for me says everything I need to know about Mike Tomlin.
And I just this team I think will be one of the surprise teams from a mass audience example.
For guys like you and me that watch this religiously maybe not much.
But I think a mass basic B-flat fan is going to be surprised by this team this year.
Yeah, no, they absolutely could surprise.
I just don't think they will, but I have them barely under at eight wins.
Okay, that leaves us with Brownie the Elf.
Nine and a half.
Cleveland.
Oh, let's take a look here.
Starting out versus the Bengals.
Versus the Bengals at Pittsburgh versus Tennessee.
That's a tough first three out.
I don't see them.
It may be almost Halloween before they
as I'm looking at this schedule.
What was the overrunner I apologize?
Sorry, I threw up James's quote because that was two guys.
I'm I'm taking the under.
I can't see your number.
I'm getting there.
I can't see Cleveland.
I'm going to give him seven and that's and that's me being generous because I'm in a
generous mood.
It's Cleveland at the crux of all of it.
It's the Browns.
They're bringing back the all white woonies this year.
It's it's the Cleveland curse.
It just is.
But here's my favorite part of what you just said and why I wanted that number.
Without talking to anybody about numbers, we all have the exact same one.
Really?
Wow.
Have seven.
Now we have one of those every year where all of us have the exact same number.
I don't think we had any.
I think we can close on a few, but I don't think we had any last year.
But it's definitely going to be a real rough start for them because they are a running team
and they have the second toughest opening month rush schedule.
So they're going to start behind everything and part of the reason I love James' quote
because we all have them losing seven at least or losing nine and a half at least.
Well, it's going to be bad.
Dishon Watson needs to prove his worth with a full-off season.
After that money, all on better, for that money, he dug on better.
But to be off for almost two years, which I did not realize or remember,
but here's where you're saving graces.
Not at least one.
Nick, on start last year, didn't he?
Yeah, he was off for almost two full years before then.
Oh, okay.
Okay, I see what you're saying.
I thought you were saying going in.
No, no, no, yes.
Going into less.
Nick Chubb over his first five seasons has a five plus yards per carry.
And he has 6,000 rushing yards.
He's the first person to do it to start a career since Jim Brown.
Well, and my thing is, whatever the over under is on average number of carries,
that man's going to have a game take the over because there's not an over under high enough
that I would take an under on average carries per game Nick Chubb's going to have,
because that's that's what they got.
Well, I would pivot that to touches because I feel like they're going to have to pass more being
behind fair.
Though his rushes may be limited because they suck and they lost what good they had on their
defense in a lot of areas.
So all of us have seven to wrap up the AFC North.
All right.
AFC South.
Are we going to automatically?
In the division?
Okay, so we're right.
Oh, no, no, no, it's order of finish from the prior.
Okay, okay.
So where are we at, man?
So we are the fighting sheer cons.
Oh, so.
Jacks.
Yes.
So their number is nine and a half.
Two, three.
I got them winning three out of their first four.
Okay, because Indy Houston Atlanta.
I agree.
I'm going to play Houston twice.
They got Cleveland.
What was the over under?
Nine and a half.
I'll take the over because I think they can win this division with 10 wins.
But it's all it's all on QB1's shoulders.
Everything, all of it.
Interestingly enough, James has the exact same prediction as Don.
Well, now it's different.
But Don had 11 wins in the over.
I actually have them barely under it.
However, there is some good news.
They are the first team in NFL history to win a playoff aim
after having the league's worst record the year before.
And the only team in the NFL that has hosted stadium stampede,
at least for the next couple of weeks.
So far.
But Trevor Lawrence is one of three QBs to throw for 4,000 yards,
25 TDs, and run for five TDs.
Every QB, I like that kid.
As do I.
Every QB drafted number one in the last decade
and to start a third season at any point.
And there's been seven of them has seen a drastic statistical jump.
So while I have them only winning nine games, only
Trevor Lawrence should take a massive step forward to the point
where I think he's going to be in that tier one of QB conversation next year.
Well, I would agree with you on that.
But I think they're because it's also because they're putting more pieces around him.
Like this team is not.
This is why I went over with it to 11 because
they're finally taking this team seriously, even in its own town.
Like until two years ago, the only thing that the Jacksonville Jaguars
had people talking about was the debacle that was that that's super bowl in that town.
Yeah, now people are trying to take this team more seriously.
This team is taking itself more seriously.
And I think it begins and ends with Trevor Lawrence.
It just does.
In most cases, you say the team does live and die by the quarterback.
I believe this team does more than most.
Who James called it the best team in the state of Florida?
Who?
Yes.
Or Texas.
So.
Tennessee Titans seven and a half.
See, Tennessee.
I might start pushing the gas here because we are definitely behind.
That's all right.
At least we're not in studio.
We're already home.
Well, I'm home.
You're not.
Tennessee is a team that I put a lot of stock in early and they tend to disappoint me.
What's the over under?
Seven and a half.
I will take the over because this team will finish above 500 at nine wins.
Closing, closing at closing versus Jacksonville.
That will be a fun game to watch in week 18.
God, they got Houston two of their last four games.
And they've got they got a nice spacing out against India as well.
But I think this team, this team's not going to set the world on fire,
but they'll beat that over under.
Well, the big thing that they need to do is they did signed the Andre Hopkins or what's left of him.
But Pete Skaronsky, who they drafted in the first round,
will determine how well this team goes because this team fell off a cliff in 2020
as an over from an overall standpoint.
The moment their tackles either left in Jack Conklin or just
got less effective in Taylor Lohan.
So pass blocking is going to need to be a thing.
And Skaronsky will be the one that determines it.
Personally, I think Rabel's own stubbornness will power the team to an over.
But I only have them winning eight.
Don has them under it seven.
So now we go to Houston Houston Houston.
No, Indianapolis.
Oh, Indian.
So this is going to have a little bit of crossover with the Titans,
which is why I'm glad they're back to back.
Derek Henry, as you would put it, is a mountain of a man.
Would you agree?
I would not debate that.
All right.
He is six foot three two hundred and forty three pounds and just punishes defenses.
Not really break away, but he is so large on so many running plays
that he just beats the crap out of it.
Would you agree?
Yes, he will he will pound that line and wear it now.
Anthony Richardson is six foot four two hundred and fifty pounds.
So he is larger than Derek Henry and will have a significant number of runs this year.
And he can swing the rock too.
Not necessarily accurately, but if that ever happens, look out.
But the bigger thing there, Derek Henry being very large runs a four five three forty.
So, you know, mass times velocity.
Anthony Richardson runs up four four at that size.
People are going to hurt, but they're going to stack the box and make him throw it.
And outside of Michael Pittman, there's nobody to throw to.
The kid can throw bombs, but he needs to get accurate.
He wasn't accurate in college, but he also has very minimal game experience.
But his running is going to carry them to at least a few wins.
So, where do you have them at six and a half?
I just saw something very interesting as I looked at the schedule.
Did the NFL change a rule?
Because I thought we were still under the impression
that every team in the league plays at least once on Thursday night.
They do not.
They remove that because of the slew of terrible Thursday night games last year.
Well, the cults do not.
They've got they don't have any prime time games.
They've got one.
They've got the November 12th at New England overseas.
The international series.
Oh, I give me the under.
I just don't have any faith in the cults right now.
I just don't.
Five five five.
You know, I like that number because I also have them at five.
I hate saying that because I just I like the cults as an organization.
I just I got to use my head not my heart.
Hey, there's Mike.
Hey, he's he's just reinforcing what you said that they moved that last February.
Yeah, but Don actually has them hitting the over it said.
So let's close out the AFC South with whatever Houston is going to be.
So five and a half.
Where do you got him?
Houston Houston Houston.
The only thing that would interest me in watching Houston Houston Houston play
is a grudge match with the Titans for the name of the Oilers.
That's it.
That'll be a fun one, but it'll never happen.
He is horrible.
They're going to win three maximum three max maximum.
You know, it's interesting.
We have nothing prime time at all.
Nope, they have one prime time game and it's in preseason.
Everything is noon or three central time.
Would you say you're going out on a limb with three?
I'm going out on a limb with five.
Three might be more realistic.
Wait, so what are you picking?
Three or five?
I thought I picked five.
You said five for Indianapolis three for Houston.
Oh, it's out here.
Three on Houston three.
A three is about right.
Okay, I just want to give you a chance to adjust since you do have the same number as Don.
That's fair.
And I have them at four.
So we all think they suck.
I think great, great, great grouping.
Yeah, Demiko Ryan's is a great coach,
but this is not a one year fix.
The defense will be better, but the offense will continue to be garbage.
But the worst part about it,
they have no first round pick next year.
Because they lost it in the trade for Will Anderson.
But there is value in Houston.
It's betting on whoever they play.
The value of the AFC West.
When that bullet train gets made up and you can get there from here in an hour and a half.
Yeah, but shifting over to the AFC West.
And our Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 11 and a half.
I mean, I don't even know why I'm looking at this schedule because I'm taking the over at 13.
This team is steam rolling.
You're opening versus Detroit.
I mean,
as they give the buy after Miami and they're hosting the dolphins.
So I didn't have a maximum of three losses before the buy maximum.
So we have another good grouping.
Don has on it 12.
I have them under it 11.
So it's been 20 years since there's been a repeat Super Bowl champion.
I already mentioned about Orlando Brown being signed by Cincinnati.
So they lost my home's main protector.
And interestingly enough throughout the entire season,
including the playoffs and the Super Bowl,
Mahomes had 48 passing touchdowns.
He only had one that traveled over 20 yards.
For context, that is the same number as David Blow.
Taseham Hill and Christian McCaffrey.
It is a short passing game.
They got to figure out the defenses have to figure out how to stop that.
And I think somebody in their division will.
But remember, Mahomes lose his points.
Because British Mahomes?
No, because Thunder Smurf's his favorite movie.
That is also fair.
But quarterback on Netflix, not very interesting,
but it does make me respect certain players infinitely more.
And I may or may not have been that one too.
Moving right on.
The Chargers.
Go ahead, Rob. Just say the phrase.
Angel is super chargers.
Not what I was referring to.
What do you say about the Chargers every year?
Chargers going charger.
Give me the over under nine and a half under seven.
I just.
You can't make me believe in the Chargers.
You can't.
And they'll get all seven of those wins.
Before.
Before November one.
Now then the meltdown will happen as tends to do with the Chargers,
no matter where they are.
I would love to make them great stadium.
Not theirs.
I would love to make a side wager with you, but I know you don't bet.
Because the Chargers had a historical level of injuries.
Fun fact, if Austin Eccler leads the league in TDs for the third straight season,
it'll be the first time somebody has done that since 1960.
Again, Jim Brown, greatest running back of all time.
Now, I want you to think about how good the Chargers offense was and how many injuries they
dealt with on defense.
They have a new offensive coordinator.
Because there were times they struggled on third down, which we know is very important.
That new coordinator is Kellen Moore, formerly of the Cowboys, where he had
less talent to work with than on the Chargers in his time as an offensive coordinator in the NFL.
His teams are number two in total offense and scoring.
They're also number four in passing yards and number seven in rushing yards.
His offense is getting done.
I have the Chargers winning 12 games and the division.
Don has them winning 10.
I just don't have the optimism you two do with this team.
Well, and I love airbearer, don't give me wrong. Love me some air bear.
A dog don't hunt.
So, if there's no optimism, let's move to the lack of hope that is Las Vegas.
You mean when the autumn wind is arrayed up.
I think you're trying to do the echo thing and it has.
Let's try to get let's try to get with the less echo.
Well, no, no, no, it hasn't worked in like three weeks.
Right about there should do it.
There's no way you can't hear it.
No, there hasn't been for weeks.
Oh, Dad, come at all the new Jersey.
But yeah, speaking of New Jersey, they have a new starting quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo.
But where do you put them at six and a half?
Oh, the Raiders under five.
I just, I have no faith in the Raiders.
And Mike's saying to he can't hear the echo.
That makes me sad because the echo sounds good.
Yes, they've got a really late buy.
Dear Lord, their buy isn't until the first week of December.
And they've got, they've got the AFC East for sure.
I just can't, I can't put any faith in the Raiders either.
I just can't.
I got more faith in the Chargers, but that, yeah, that ain't saying much.
They have some wide receiver talent.
So Jimmy Garoppolo only needs to be a facilitator.
As he has always been in his career,
even leading San Francisco to a Super Bowl by doing that.
However, that defense is almost entirely bad.
If you're not named Max Crosby.
But Josh Jacobs was elite.
He was the number one running back last year.
He has yet to report.
And we're almost to the season.
Which usually leads to injuries.
And they are going to suck.
This is one of my favorite underbets of the year,
because I have them winning four.
Don on an island has them winning eight.
Sure.
Hey, he called Jacksonville last year.
I'm giving him that.
Oh, he did.
He'll hang his hat on that for the rest of the time.
Broken clocks right twice a day.
But to wrap up the AFC.
The biggest disappointment of my 2022.
The Denver Broncos.
Eight and a half.
I'm taking the under, but they'll win eight games.
They here's the thing with looking at their schedule just on paper.
You've got
Vegas and the commanders in your first two weeks.
That's going to build confidence that's going to shatter Shadooby
before it's all said and done.
They've got Kansas City, Green Bay, Kansas City,
and then the buy and then Buffalo.
Oh, for four and you tie the buy.
Yeah, this is not going to be good.
They'll win eight games, but it ain't going to,
it's not going to be pretty.
They'll finish second in the division.
I'm sorry, you said they'll win eight and finish second.
Behind Kansas City.
Yeah, I just realized that I wasn't paying attention to your numbers until just now.
I also have them winning eight.
So I 100% agree with you.
Don has them winning seven.
But if I can give anybody who is a Broncos fan or just want them not to suck
some hope, Russell Wilson was almost the worst quarterback in the NFL on first
down. His grading scale, according to PFF, was 62.9.
In prior seasons, he's one of the best ever at a 92 grade.
Last year, anomaly, maybe.
But Sean Payton specializes in coaching up quarterbacks on first down.
The greatest to ever do it.
Drew Breeze, who had a record 94.4 grade, which means Russell Wilson was about that far behind him
every year that wasn't 2022.
With Sean Payton there, I expect Denver's offense to function a lot better.
But if you want a sneaky nugget and I'm glad we don't pick close enough in our fantasy leak
for you to snipe this from me, Rob.
Sean Payton gets work out of all of his running backs.
He does not have a bell cow.
He gets 150 touches from every running back almost every year.
One season, he didn't because of injuries.
When Sam is a p-Rine got that many touches per game, he
averaged 21.3 fantasy points.
And he did it every time he had 10 touches.
Javante Williams is back and healthy and should be good.
But Sam is a p-Rine is going to get work for Denver.
And that's it for the AFC.
Russell Wilson has at least a supervillain that I had to.
But, yeah.
And somebody's ego didn't get in the way.
What are the best episodes of the league ever?
The best openings.
So, AFC maybe, let's go.
Let's do an FCE East Philadelphia Eagles 10 and a half.
I think Philadelphia is going to be more successful in April than they're going to be in January.
Hashtag Bulldog Nation?
Well, actually, no, there was something else I was going with in that same stadium.
In April.
Resulatia!
Nothing?
Sorry, I was getting ready for the other one.
That was two years ago, but yes.
No, they have it this year.
For 40, 40, 40.
That's correct.
Which is, I was saying, they'll have more success in April than they will in January.
What was the other one?
10 and a half.
The good news for them is they're in that division.
I will take the underbarley, but I'm saying I'll take the underbarley at 10.
I don't think they'll hit 11, but it'll be enough to win that division.
Would you like Don's or mine first?
Whichever is easier for you?
Don has them at 12.
I have them at 14.
That's why I say, look at that schedule.
It is arguably softest for a division winner out of all division winners that aren't the Bengals.
So, the only thing that I saw that Philadelphia really has working against them.
The last 17 QBs to lose their Super Bowl debut.
Never made it back.
James has 12.
It's just, Philly has this habit.
When they have a softer schedule, they take those opponents for granted.
And at least a couple of them will reach up and bite them on the tukus.
Well, I almost agree with James entirely on the sticks wins from the rest of the division alone.
I would say five, but we'll get to that on the next one.
The Cowboys.
Nine and a half.
Under.
At.
I'm letting me get to the schedule, but I don't I don't see them hitting double digits.
The thing about it's right, but this is another team that has this habit of looking past their
opponent when they think it's a cupcake.
Think about Thanksgiving day when the dolphins were in the old stadium and they thought they were
going to run and Ricky Williams said, hey, how about you hold my beer for about five minutes while me and
Zach Thomas beat you 41 to 14 or whatever it was.
They'll win eight.
They'll win eight.
But I'm not giving them anymore.
Well, you're not far off of dawns.
He has them at nine.
I have them big asterisk because it's such a cupcake schedule, winning 11.
That is also an accurate statement, James about Ricky Williams moving right along, but the fun fact.
They thought Kellen Moore was the problem when they were at the top of the league in offense,
so they hired Brian Shottonheimer, who might as well be the offensive equivalent of paint drying.
Dak Prescott is now the longest tenured QB with his team.
And he's also the first quarterback to lead the league in interceptions while missing five or more
games. 40 million dollars was spent.
Yep, but it's not all bad because Tony Pollard, friend of the show, average 19.6 fantasy points in
games that he had at least 15 touches. Interestingly enough, the green zone inside the tenured line,
which is considered high value for running backs, he only had 12 carries inside the 10.
Alex is frozen up on us there.
We'll give him a minute.
Alex, are you with you?
You froze up on us there for a moment.
What was the last thing that came through?
You were talking about a friend of the show and then the wheels kind of fell off.
Okay, Tony Pollard 19.6 fantasy points per game when he had at least 15 touches.
He had nine touchdowns last year, despite only having 12 carries inside the 10.
Ezekiel Elliott had 26.
Ezekiel Elliott is now that fat guy on the Patriots.
So there's not really competition for Pollard.
I expect a big season for him.
Because Brian Schott and I are loves to run twice and then make a bad pass.
But I do have them in the playoffs as much as I dislike their fandom.
Okay, we like to get to the playoffs and then just like not do anything.
I'll put a pin in it. I actually have them winning a playoff game.
So let's rip the bandaid off.
New York Giants seven and a half.
I'm going to give you eight.
Because the Giants are a team, especially in this division,
they understand how to play division opponents.
They just do outside the division.
It gets a little hairy, but they understand how to play teams in their division.
Now, thereby also doesn't come until after Thanksgiving, which is an interesting concept.
They also have Thursday night and Monday night and back-to-back weeks.
So they basically get a nice little pseudo buy between September 21st and October 2nd
in their West Coast swing between the Niners and the Seahawks,
which is a very interesting bit to me as well.
I think this team is more competitive than you believe them to be.
And they're your team, which I appreciate.
But I think I got a little bit more faith in you, dude.
What if I told you you're not the highest on one?
Wouldn't surprise me.
Don has the winning 10.
Might be a little aggressive, but you know, it says a pain.
He's welcome to it's America.
I have the winning six.
That's my point from 30 seconds ago.
Yes, now they were massive overachievers as they were the worst statistical team
to ever make the playoffs,
according to Pro Football Focus.
But there is an interesting subtle signing that they did in this offseason,
which was actually, I believe, a trade.
Daniel Jones is one of the highest rated quarterbacks throwing to crossing routes.
They signed or traded for Darren Waller,
who has the third most receptions on crossing routes since 2019.
The dude does work on crossing routes over the middle.
He also missed 14 games in that time.
Get ready for the Darren Waller show.
I like, I like where Mike's had that, honestly.
Don may help an alcohol rope wrong one.
That's James.
I have like that flipped in the middle.
I agree with Mike, not just I don't know.
All right, the commies.
Sick and a half.
The Washington Football Club.
Didn't give you the answers.
They're waiting for the brigade.
This team is terrible.
It just is.
And they're dealing with new ownership now and everything that's going to come with that.
This team will be bad for the next three to four years.
It just will be because they are in a full overhaul.
And if you are in the DC area.
I hate to say this because it comes from another city in your division.
You got to trust the process for a minute, bro.
They might win three.
Is that your call?
I'm James says two.
I'm saying three.
I just, God bless you.
This is going to be a tough road for them to walk here for the next few seasons.
What if I told you one of the people on this show has them over?
It's you probably.
It is not.
Don has no ways that I figured it was you.
Yeah.
Don has them winning eight.
I have them winning fuck.
Fun fact for the commies.
They will be starting a different week one quarterback for the seventh consecutive season.
As are the Colts.
Thank you for reading my next note.
Oh, okay.
I knew that because I heard that last week.
Yes, which ties the record with the Colts and a team from the 60s.
But the last QB to lead them to a winning record and into the playoffs was Kirk Cousins,
who is going into his sixth season with the Vikings.
Who likes that?
He likes that.
He did once.
But this is a good team.
It really is a good team that is a quarterback away from contending.
I mean, John Dotson and Terry McClure and are among the two best wide receivers or the best
wide receiver tandem in the NFL.
They just don't have anybody that can get them to the ball.
Now, maybe Sam Howell is the answer.
He was good in college.
But we're going to find out.
All right, on to Mike's division.
Can't wait to hear this one from him.
The Minnesota Vikings at eight and a half wins.
Minnesota.
We're as James said earlier.
Aaron Rogers will be next year.
If he takes the far route.
Yep.
Say it again.
Eight and a half for the Minnesota Vikings.
Taking the under its seven.
So many teams have the bites so late this year.
Like this is ridiculous.
Well, if you'd like your grouping, you have them under at seven.
Don have them under at eight.
I have them over at nine.
Now, this is the most grouping I think we've ever had.
Possibly, but the crazy thing about the Vikings last year is they won 13 games
despite having a negative point differential.
I want you to think about that.
They won 13 games and gave up more points than they scored.
So, didn't they have like half those wins whereby less than a field goal?
I want to say it was less than five, but the interesting things that I have for that one.
Kurt Cousins is the 11th best graded passer of all time.
And second, among those drafted in the fourth round or later.
After Tom Brady.
Now, TJ Hawkinson was the tight end too.
From the moment he joined the Vikings through week 17.
Adam Thielin had 107 targets and ran more routes than anybody in the NFL.
He's now in Carolina.
And if you would like the craziest stat about my guy from last year.
Justin Jefferson has 2400 yard games through his first three seasons.
You know, that's the record for a four-year career?
That kid just was amazing last year.
Watching amazing his whole career.
It's watching, but I'm saying like last season was when I really paid attention to him because
fantasy. Watching him play is what is it's just joy.
Even if he wasn't on my team, just watching.
He is the human highlight reel right now.
Just is.
And if he can elevate that team at all, Mike thinks there'll be one of our games they might split
with the Lions.
And he also never thinks they'll go under 10 most years.
Hey, they might go over, but then they wind up losing to a team that has no business being in the
playoffs.
I just.
There's just another one of those teams that it just feels like there's something missing
that would push them over the top.
And it's not it's not anything major.
It just feels like you just a little bit of tweaking.
This could be could be.
No, the thing you're talking about is defense.
That's what they're missing.
Now, the team that is favored to win the division and you talked about them before,
the Detroit Lions MCDC.
Nine and a half Motor City Dam Campbell.
Nine and a half.
Yes.
One.
Two.
I'm going to go under at seven, just looking at this because they've got they've got the early game
on Thanksgiving versus Green Bay.
Because Detroit plays every year on Thanksgiving.
That's the that's the tradition.
They're they're in this town on New Year's Eve.
Now, they're the favorites to win the division.
But I have two stats for you.
One good, one bad.
Okay, I'm going to start with the bad.
Okay, but last time the Lions want to play off game,
Brett Farve was still on the Falcons.
Yes.
And I love there's so many people are like, wait, no, he put, yeah, he did, they drafted him.
But here's a good one for you.
The Lions.
After October.
Play two games that are considered outdoors.
And one of those is in Dallas with a retractable roof.
The reason that matters is that Jared golf indoors averaged 20.6 fantasy points per game.
Only the big four of Alan Mahomes, Burrow and Herbert and Hertz scored better than that on a
per game basis. And even by the time they play this team, whether's not going to be a factor for
them. Because even if Jared opens the roof, it's December.
But they're not going to open the roof.
That's what I think, but even if they did, to me, for a team that's in Detroit,
even though they do play indoors, but to me, whether's part of home field advantage,
I don't know that even if Jerry opened the roof, it would matter to Visty.
Now, you had them under at seven.
Don has them at 10.
I have them at eight.
So you and I are close.
Don have it.
No, we're not just just to make us angry.
They'll win just to thread that needle.
Now, this one, this one I struggled with.
The next two, I shouldn't say because combining the two, both the Packers and the Bears
have a win total expectation of seven and a half.
Here's my thing.
I don't have the battle cadets here.
The Packers, it's going to go really well, or it's really not.
I believe in Jordan love.
But I'm, you mean, old on Jordan love.
I think I will, again, this is another one of those.
And James is saying the thing, you could throw darts blindfolded and to pick the number
wins just as accurately.
I'm actually going to take the under for the Packers at seven.
I will take the over with the Bears at eight.
These are going to be the two teams that are going to battle for the middle of the division
in my opinion.
And you could spin a wheel as to who's going to come out of this division.
I will tell you a wild card will not come out of this division.
But those two will be right dead in the middle.
I still think Minnesota's got enough to win the division.
The Lions, it's God, James is right.
This division is it's mind boggling.
And it has been for the last few years.
This is this is the hard knocked problem I have.
Because last year it was the Lions and I was ready to run through a wall for MCDC.
And then it just melted down.
But I just yeah, that's where I'm at.
Now, yeah, James is the right.
The division winner could take it with eight.
However, agreed.
I interestingly have both teams going over.
But I'm going to save that for a minute.
Jordan Love will be the first week one quarterback not named Farve O'Rodgers
since the dream team in 1992.
Yeah, that's one thing you can say about Green Bay.
They'll stick with a QB.
Yet they only win one Super Bowl of Peace.
Now at the Frozen Tundra.
Here's the interesting thing with the Packers and why I have them going over.
Their past defense is elite.
They'll keep them either in the games or even win them against Minnesota and Detroit.
But they couldn't stop my grandmother running.
And Chicago will run all over them because that's what they do.
I have the Packer is winning
nine. Don has them winning eight.
Can I try something real quick because I think I figured it out.
Go for it because they play at the Frozen Tundra of La Bofi.
You want to go back to the Raiders for a minute?
Because in one month and three days,
the autumn win is a Raider.
For some reason, it comes through my headphones.
But I had to turn up the level on the mixer where to go out.
But it works now.
But we got it now.
We're good now.
So thoughts on that one.
We have nine, eight, seven for the Packers.
Yeah, it's just I want Jordan love to succeed,
but I am not fully sold yet.
I think their receivers are also underrated right now
with the Jaden Reed, Christian Watson and Romeo Dobs.
Plus, when you have Aaron Jones and AJ Dylan,
that's pretty much a full offense.
Now Chicago, and you heard me say like this is stupid
during the preseason game that people are going to overreact to.
But then I dug a little bit deeper.
Run defense is the biggest Achilles heel for everybody in the division, not named Chicago.
Just in fields came up just short of the overall QB rushing record.
But interestingly enough, he almost doubled number two of all time.
The yards after contact.
So he set the record for QBs for yards after contact almost lapping the field all time.
Chicago went out of their way to improve their offensive line immensely.
Now, the other thing is is that fields hasn't always been the most accurate of passers,
but he has improved.
He did improve throughout last year.
The biggest thing Chicago did was get DJ more.
His catch rate on balls within his reach.
So that's his entire wingspan plus a few inches based on movement.
98.3%.
If it gets even remotely close to DJ more,
they're going to complete passes.
But the box is going to be stacked.
So who's going to stop them?
The only time that's going to be stopped is against the Packers when Jair Alexander
is going to blanket cover DJ more.
So would you say and then just build a run for 200 yards?
So would you say with that defense, there might be a
stampede in that stadium?
Thank you for figuring out why I was holding off on that.
But I see the show.
Excuse me?
I said, watch the other show.
Now, do you want me to break your brain a little bit?
More than that's already that way, sure.
I have the Bears winning double digit games.
10 and the division.
It's I wouldn't say that's outside of the realm of possibility.
But I think a lot has to fall their way.
But this is why this is why I love doing this show because I do the research.
If you asked me Sam's research, how many games the Bears were going to win,
I would have said five.
This is your wheelhouse.
It's what I heard.
I know enough to be dangerous and that's why this works.
And then Don spins the wheel.
He gets it right.
He has value.
Again, he's the one that said, what did he say?
The like 13 wins for Jacksonville last year.
I want to say he said on the left.
Like you are out of your mind.
What happened?
All right, your other team.
The division that was won with a losing record in the NFC South.
I want, have you looked at anything for Tampa Bay yet?
I have not.
I'm pulling it up now.
No, I don't want you to pull it up.
I want you to guess the line for the over.
Eight and a half.
Six and a half.
Take the over at eight.
Okay, you think they win eight?
Now let me look at this casual.
Yeah.
So I know they don't they have.
Don't they have one of the international games?
I believe they had you both both of them both of my teams have no they don't.
Miami does.
I thought Tampa Bay has a game against Jacksonville and London.
No, that's versus Jacksonville.
That's a 305 central game on CBS.
No, okay.
I thought that that one was in London.
Maybe maybe it got swapped out because that that does sound familiar.
It might have gotten swapped out or maybe that was last.
But no, they they got.
They do have a Thursday night at Buffalo in October.
Oh, daddy.
This this division is such a shell of its former self.
You remember when this division was appointment viewing?
When Carolina was firing all cylinders, New Orleans was running rough shot.
Tampa Bay was doing the deal and the foul in a bad year.
Atlanta and Carolina scored 80 points on a Thursday night.
Geez.
And this this division like again, I think they'll win eight games,
but it's not going to be enjoyable.
Well, you have the same number as Don.
That makes me feel better.
I have them winning five.
Now, what I'm going to be very interested in is how well the
defense keeps them in games because the defense is still pretty good.
Tristan Wurfs
isn't a lead offensive tackle, but the rest of the line is toast.
So Baker might be getting or trash might be having somebody in their hip pocket every single
moment.
What I'm most interested in is Mike Evans has nine years of at least a thousand yards.
He's got there with 1100 last year with Brady having a bad season.
Now, Brady wasn't there a long time, so Evans was still getting it done with less
than stellar quarterback play.
See my prior notes on Todd Monkett, but do you know what Baker Mayfield is still among the elite at?
Having keys to a stadium?
No, he had to give those back.
Okay, well, maybe he's got it for here.
Yeah, Brady still has him.
Okay, actually just I'll might have gotten it into divorce.
Anyway, you got to have.
Baker Mayfield has always had elite statistics on deep balls, deep ball accuracy,
and deep ball success rate.
Mike Evans runs the deep routes.
Godwin runs the short routes where Baker Mayfield struggles.
Now, he may not have a great year,
but I say that Evans gets to 10 years.
And if you're curious, that's to start his career.
And the overall record for most consecutive thousand yard seasons is 11.
And he has openly said he wants to get there.
And Byron left with still coaching.
Like him as a coach too.
Still coaching and likes to get his guys his bonuses.
So I haven't met five, but I don't have them winning games.
Fair enough.
Carolina.
Kubway.
Seven and a half.
Under.
How far?
Five.
This team.
I mean, they're going to have a little bit of confidence coming out of the gate at Atlanta versus the
Saints at Seattle.
Then they run Minnesota Detroit Miami and the by.
They don't have a little bit more confidence coming off the by versus Houston Houston Houston and
Indy.
But then at Chicago hosting Dallas at Tennessee.
That's going to be it's a tough stretch for them.
And then finishing hosting Green Bay at Jacksonville hosting Tampa Bay.
This is not going to be fun for them.
It's just not going to be fun.
Interestingly enough, you have the least really.
Yeah, Don and I both have them winning six.
So we're all under.
But it's five or six.
So the interesting thing that Carolina has going for it is Frank Rake.
A fantastic coach that should not have been fired in Indianapolis.
Agreed fully.
But even before that Frank or excuse me, Carolina was awesome against the run,
which is what this division is going to have to do.
And running the ball, which this division can't really stop outside of New Orleans.
So if they can get something more out of Frank Rake, that rookie QB drinks from starting week one
might fall for the first time since Andrew Luck and RG3.
But the only thing that's really going to be worthwhile on this team,
at least from fantasy, is a super deep sleeper of DJ Charc.
They paid Adam Thielin to be their wide receiver one.
But as much as I like Adam Thielin and I know I'm pretty sure Mike named a kid after him.
That dude's toast.
So DJ Charc is going to be your main pass catcher.
DJ Charc, we got to stop before we owe somebody money.
But Jonathan Mingo is a really good rookie coming in, but he's going to need to adjust.
If he adjusts faster than I expect, they'll blow this number, blow past this number by December.
I don't think they will bear enough.
Now, coming in third for that division because
James Winston on one leg and Andy Dalton's red rocket firearm.
New Orleans Saints, the only one that is an actual even number at nine.
This is a tough schedule as I'm looking at it.
I disagree, sir.
You're hosting Tennessee, you're at the frozen tundra.
You're hosting Jacksonville.
Chicago could go either way.
Can I push?
Absolutely.
No, I don't want to push because that's cheating.
That's not cheating.
That's just trying to thread a needle and it's a bad move.
Yeah.
I just, the Saints have been so all over the map the last four or five years.
You just want to go, who'd that coaching this year?
Just wondering.
Dennis Allen.
I'm, I'm still, I was making a joke.
Oh, I thought you were genuinely asking.
Give me the under eight.
At eight.
What if I told you you're the only one that went under?
Wouldn't surprise me.
Yeah, but there's something that you don't know that Don went 14.
Don went 10.
Okay, I'm going to withhold my number for a second.
Okay, because you're going to see where this is going.
Fair enough.
Derek Carr has always been an underrated passer.
He's always been among the top half to top 10.
And he now has his most complete receiving court.
Now, Michael Thomas may also be cooked,
but that dude holds the record for most catches in a season for a reason.
Throw him out.
Chris Olave from that state or from that college I refuse to say.
And Rashid Shaheed were both rookies last year.
Fun fact, they are second and fourth all time in yards per route run by rookies.
They know how to get open and create yardage.
Reheat, I mean, we saw a lot of highlights on him.
That doesn't shock me at all.
But now he's going to get more of a focal point rather than just being the nine route guy.
I want you to think about that.
Second and fourth all time, yards per route run.
And they did it with James Winston not being able to see and Andy Dalton,
who I think I might be able to throw further than.
Now, if you want the fantasy twist on Chris Olave and I really hate saying these things,
because I feel like every time I do they wind up on your team, Rob.
Chris Olave averaged 15.1 points per game.
When he got four targets, think about that. He's quick and fast.
Most starting receivers get at least seven a game.
When he got at least four, he was an elite wide receiver.
And Derek Carr is the best quarterback he could have hoped for in this offseason.
I have the New Orleans Saints winning 13 games.
The bold move, brother.
It is. I just again, Carr as a human big fan of your car always have been.
I hope he has an amazing season, because I want him to dunk on the Raiders.
I know because he was so misused, especially in the last two to three years.
I hope he has a breakout season. I'm not putting money on it.
I am. I know you are, but
that's right. This is either going to be my best call of the year,
or it's this year's Broncos.
This year's Broncos are this year's Jaguars for you. One of the two.
No, no, I can't take that. It's either for me. It's either this year's Eagles or Broncos.
I'm just saying on the show as a whole.
Yes. So that leaves us with the Atlanta Falcons.
Eight and a half under five.
And that's being generous. This team is bad. It's been bad for a long time.
And that's sad because that's a great stadium.
Sir, just quick question. You said five. Yes.
That is correct. Okay.
Now, interestingly enough, Don and I agreed. We also have it as under but set.
But that has more to do with the fact that Tampa Bay and the Panthers will be
calling them dumpster fires would be an insult to dumpsters and fires.
And they're at Arizona. That helps.
That definitely helps. So interestingly enough, their coach Arthur Smith
very much known for running running some more and then running again because Derek Henry.
They just drafted B. Sean Robinson with the eighth pick.
Guess who is a fantasy target in my book?
Kids good.
Now, here's where the real thing comes in.
Atlanta was elite last year at running the ball despite being terrible.
Guard Chris Lindstrom, unsung hero for the Falcons,
had the highest rated guard season in the modern history and he's done it consistently.
So he creates holes and you combine the talent of B. John Robinson with that.
The kid may have 1500 yards, just say. But I also think the best thing that could happen for the
Falcons is they either have a completely lost season and get to draft a quarterback with talent.
Or what's more likely to happen, Taylor Heinecke, yes, that Taylor Heinecke of Communist
Aim comes in and is able to lift that offense to exceeding the total.
Now, we've already said none of us expect that. But I expect they will make a run at it with
Heinecke starting games at the end of the season because Desmond Ritter is the oldest looking
second-year player of all time. And I'm pretty sure you could put him 10 feet away from a full-size
barn and he'd still only hit it half the time throwing up a ball.
So onto our last division.
And if see West, this is the division three years ago that was one on a losing record.
Which is what we just had on the prior, because Tampa Bay had a losing record. So a nice transition.
There is one team and then everybody else in this division.
San Francisco. That's who it is. Ten and a half. Over 12. I'm saying it. This team is going
to destroy people. This team is on a revenge mission. You can't stop them. You can only hope to
contain them. And they start the season in acupuncture field.
Look at that. Actually, I told my boss about that. He was very humor.
Now 12. I like that number. I have them at 11. So we both have the over. Don has them at nine.
And losing the division. Now they do have, as I'm looking through the schedule,
they've got some tough games, but not too tough for this team. Oh, this seems going to be fun to
watch this year. Interestingly enough, I think they're going to be fun to watch for something you
don't realize. They actually lost a multiple key starters on defense. That's why I only have them
at 11 and had notes drop picks in the first two rounds. But the other interesting thing is,
do you know who the last player to rush for a thousand yards for the 49ers was?
For a thousand yards. I go. You are correct. In 2014.
McHaffrey is going to break that streak. That kid. When I heard the story about him on the plane,
before he even got on the plane from Carolina to San Francisco, the one thing he wanted on that
plane was the playbook. When I heard that, I said, y'all are in trouble. If you don't have that
logo on your helmet, y'all are in trouble because this kid's going to run and he did.
He actually was a better pass catcher than he was a runner last year because he didn't know
the formations yet. Now he has a full off season. However, as much as I love Paul Heyman,
I am not a believer in Brock party. He did great facilitating, but they also kept it super simple.
But do you like the game tape over the start of the season? Defenses are going to figure out
how to try to limit. But is this also the case of Brock party? Nobody knows much about him.
Now we know more about him and we're able to figure him out better. You had your grace period.
Now it's on. But I think it's got so many multiple weapons around him. I think that he can
make up for some of them and have a lot of success with this team. But the hard part I believe they're
going to have is that defense being limited. They also lost the aforementioned Demiko Ryan's
two Houston who was known for making adjustments at halftime to put his defense in the best position
possible. They are still going to win the division in my opinion, but it's not going to be as dominant.
Now part of that is, and I still feel weird saying it,
Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Eight and a half. Under. I just Seattle. And Heather knows I love her,
and this is her team. Six. Sorry, you cut out. What did you say? Six? Yeah, it's all I can give him.
Okay, because I mean, they've got some tough stuff there at their access preseason hold on.
Well, I saw the frozen tundra and it's the last week of preseason. I mean,
again, and this is spoiler for what's going to come up here in a minute. In a world where the
Arizona Cardinals exist, they won't finish last in the division. That's true. But they've got the NFC East.
They're at Tennessee versus Pittsburgh versus Philly. They're coming here.
I just don't have a lot of faith in the Seahawks this year. Love that.
Sorry, I said, love that stadium. One of the best stadiums in the world. It's designed well,
but I just don't have the faith. Now, here's the interesting thing. I have them over at nine.
And Don has more. He has to win double digits and the division. Wow. Yeah. Hold on, I need to digest this.
He believes that the Seattle Seahawks, yes, will win a division. Yes, we're the San Francisco 49ers
in the year of our Lord 2000 in 23. That is correct. You're also leaping out the part where he said double
digit wins. I am. I don't even know what to say right now. That's amazing. I love that he puts it
out there. I love that he'll live on a limb. Now, summer house on that limb. Wow. Now,
there is some stuff in his favor because last year, Gino Smith was quietly the fifth best
passer in the league. And he might be even better this year because he had two rookie tackles
last year who did a very good job and are only going to get better with more seasoning, more work
and more training. Plus, they used their first pick on arguably the best wide receiver in the draft
in Jackson, Smith and Jigba, who happens to be from Rockwell, Texas. But you can score 28,
but when you give up 42, it doesn't matter. But when you have AK, you have Batman and Robin in DK
Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and you add JSN, that might be a pass offense for the first time in
Pete Carroll's career. But you also have Zack Sharbinay, who's going to be very good and Kenneth
Walker, who is great when he's healthy. That's a really good offense. Pete Carroll sling in
the rock in practice. I refuse to acknowledge that. That was terrible. It's Snoop Dogg.
Now, those were two videos cut together. So funny. Don't care. Funny, funny. But I do have them
winning nine games and he has the winning the division at 10. That is one of my favorite things,
and I'm so glad it's in the NFC West. Wow. But it can't all be fun because now we have the Rams.
Six and a half. The Rams are a team. They're good at you. Well,
or they're not. Now, I have them second in the division.
What's the over and again, I'm sorry. Six and a half. I'll give them seven. Okay. But they're not
going to they're not going to win the division. San Francisco is going to run away with this division.
They just are. You are the only person that has the over. Don has them at four wins. I have them at five.
Now, the interesting thing in that scope is they lost 12 games despite having the best
rushed defense in the NFL. Was that the worst drop off of a Super Bowl champion ever?
I don't believe it was, but it was close. I would say it's it's got to be on the middle stand.
It's in the ballpark at minimum. Now, that defense took a lot of hits. Some of them on purpose
by trading players away, whether or not you like them personally is another story. But a healthy
Matt Stafford and Cooper Cup drastically changes that. They should be much better because
that line is trash. It is so bad. It has been so bad since Andrew Whitworth retired. Cooper Cup,
who carried my fantasy team two years ago. Wait, I have a Cooper Cup fact that you're going to enjoy.
Okay. Cooper Cup was the 23rd best receiver last year. He played nine games. Yeah, kids good.
He's great. He's he's one of those. I think he gets enough love, but I think he still gets
enough love. You know what I mean? Yes, like he gets the highlights, but there's so much good
that that kid does that just blows my mind. But the problem that they have is that Matt Stafford's
body is held together by bubble gum and duct tape at this point. And Cooper Cup is again dealing
with a leg injury. So as they go so through the Rams and Sean McVey may just say halfway through
the season, could you just fire me because I'm done? I'm going to go on another vacation to the
Mal leaves. Yeah. So that leaves us with one team, the Arizona Cardinals, who are the in season,
the in season hard knocks team last year. And they have, I believe, tied or alone the lowest win
total in the league at four and a half. I'm going to have to look at this one.
One, two, three, four. I've got him at five before the buy. So I'm going to have to take the over.
Well, get that total number for me. But their buys late to their buys the week of the 10th of December.
Give me seven. Seven. Yeah, give me seven. You know, it's not terrible because when Kyler Murray is good,
they'll be in any game. So we apply the the wrestler logic to Kyler Murray. Which one? I am taller than him.
I'm taller than Kyler Murray. That's not paying much. The only time he's taller than me is in cleats.
Do I call him Kyle? Just now. I thought you said Kyler. Okay, if I said Kyler good, because that's
how I call him Kyle. Yeah. Fun fact, they are underdogs in literally every game looking ahead.
And they are also the betting favorite for the first overall pick in 2024.
But the fun part about that is they're the ones that own Houston's first pick next year.
So they may wind up getting the first and second pick in the NFL draft. That's not outside of the
Rebel possibility. It has happened once before. Can you guess the year? 2001. It was much earlier.
Okay. 1992. The Indianapolis Colts had the first two picks and whiffed on them both.
That organization was horrible. Yeah, you're not wrong.
The interesting thing that could completely flip for the Cardinals. Kyler Murray was the third
worst deep passer in 2022, statistically on every level. He was so far beyond everybody else
the prior two seasons, it was comical. If he can get relatively close because last year was an
anomaly, the Cardinals will blow away their their win toe. However, you and Don both have the over at
seven and six respectively. Okay. I have them coming up just short with four wins.
I just don't see it. I don't see him getting back. I don't see him getting back healthy
for at least six weeks. Now, he may be back in the game before then, but he will not be healthy
and exceed except. Okay. So general notes for the year. Now that we've wrapped up everything for
the teams, the last rookie quarterback, because we have three of them starting from week one this year.
The last rookie quarterback to win a playoff game. Also, the aforementioned Mark Sanchez.
It has a great commercial for Fubo right now. Yes. So I mentioned it before, but the only modern
era of rookie Cubis to start from day one and exceed their win totals. Andrew Luck in RG3. Andrew
Luck a little bit of a different situation because that was a solid team until Manning got hurt.
RG3 made chicken salad. We'll call it. Another fun fact for the year 2023. We've heard a lot about the
running back aspects. Did you know that the average kicker now makes more money than the average
running back for the first time in league history. So the other interesting thing and a big reason why
I have Philadelphia doing so well, there was another rule change on the docket during the owner's
meetings to make illegal outlaw, whichever word you choose in that scope, the TUSH push quarterback
sneak that Philadelphia perfected last year. As Jalen hurts on sneaks,
had a 92.3% success rate, which is more than just in Tucker kicking a field goal in that
dudes all time. So with it being a copycat league, get ready for a lot of that from other teams.
I saw a preseason game where that was attempted. And because it's illegal in college,
the rookie running back goes to push the quarterback, pulls back and goes, wait, what am I supposed to do
and gets annihilated. So every NFC South team will be starting a new quarterback week one.
The only time it ever happened prior was 1973 in the AFC West. It didn't go well for them.
It has been 18 years since the AFC East has had a repeat champion. I believe we all have the
Eagles repeating this year. And I mentioned before, the AFC North, all of their win totals are for
winning records and it's never happened. In fact, I thought mathematically it couldn't happen
based on how many times they play each other, but we will see.
Mike's going in. Will he sell what he is taking Alan High School quarterback?
That is when we were talking about Don and his win totals.
So as a quick wrap up, Rob, who do you have win in a Super Bowl or that you're Super Bowl matchup?
I think this is San Francisco's year. I think the Niners will be in Vegas.
Who they play? Kansas City. I just can't not have Kansas City. They're just, they're so good.
But San Francisco is going to be another year that a California team is going to be in the Super Bowl.
And that's that's my Super Bowl. And it's going to do gangbuster ratings. And I'll be the
head of our team. I'll be juggling that. We juggling plates. So for Don, his division winners and
the AFC are the Bills Ravens Chiefs Jaguars in the NFC Eagles Lions Seahawks and Saints. And in
the Super Bowl, he has the Eagles over the Jaguars. That would be that would be a Super Bowl.
I feel like there may be a little bit of priorier bias. There would be a game with two teams in it.
Yes. Yeah. I believe there's a little bit of bias because he's so happy with his Jaguars
call, which was amazing from last year. Yeah. Okay. Are you ready for me to die a little bit inside?
Okay. For the AFC, my playoff teams in order of seating from 1 to 7, Cincinnati, Buffalo.
The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville, Baltimore, Kansas City, and the JETS Jets Jets.
Are you only picked one Ohio team? So good on you. Well, put a pin in that.
In the wild card around, I have the Bills beating the Jets, the Chargers beating Kansas City,
and Baltimore beating Jacksonville. In my division around, Cincinnati beats Baltimore,
the Bills beat the Chargers, and then Cincinnati beats Buffalo in the AFC Championship Day.
Mike agrees with you on that half of it so far. For my NFC teams, again, 1 to 7, Philadelphia,
New Orleans, San Francisco, Chicago, Dallas, Green Bay, and Minnesota. Yeah, that beeping sound,
you hear would be Green Bay back and into it. Both of them backing into it, but I have three NFC
North teams making the playoffs. In the wild card round, Mike look away. New Orleans gets their
revenge beating Minnesota. San Francisco demolishes Green Bay and Dallas beats Chicago.
In the division around, Philadelphia says, yeah, that's cute and ushers the cowboys out. San Francisco
beats New Orleans. The NFC Championship is Philadelphia over San Francisco,
and I hold on, I gotta get a bucket because I'm gonna throw up.
My Super Bowl champion is the Cincinnati, Cincinnati, the Bengals over the Eagles.
I don't care about my fandom when it's predictions. Yeah, that's fair. Speaking of predictions,
first of all, great job, Alex, as always, and for those of you that are not aware, he did all of
this. I did none of this outside of my opinions. Speaking of predictions, if you go to our social media,
you will find a link to our Pickham competition that will go through the entire season. Please go
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But be a part of this show. We love interacting with you guys. The chat room was lit up tonight,
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normally sports, entertainment and pop culture. But we devoted this one to the NFL because life
is about to begin. Now next week, we're on a 50 50 wait, maybe not. We could be on we could be
out we not we've got some weird things going on next week all in comes live from Wembley Stadium.
Where Don will be. So if you get the pay per view for AEW next week, you might see him on TV in London.
Hopefully dressed like everybody. We give him grief. We give him grief, but he's our boy. He's
our dude. He's our brother. But definitely 50 50 next week. Just pay attention to our social media.
We'll keep you updated. We cannot thank you enough for joining us.
Make sure you tell everybody you know about the show. Share our social media. Whether you're on
Facebook, whether you're on YouTube, whether you're on Twitch, there's some great stuff coming
and we want you guys to ride along with us. So until next time for Alex for Don for the empire.
I'm Rob. Clubhouse's closed Britney Palmer was working UFC last night and she works in UFC.
She gets the job done, bruh.