Germany used to be the team you didn't have to worry about. Four titles, eight finals, the most ruthlessly consistent program in the sport for half a century. Then 2018 happened — group stage exit in Russia, last place behind South Korea. Then 2022 happened — group stage exit in Qatar, knocked out the same day Japan beat Spain. Two of the last three tournaments, the four-time champions have not made the Round of 16. That is the sentence that frames everything.
Julian Nagelsmann took the job in 2023 with a mandate to rebuild without the benefit of a rebuild. His Euro 2024 quarterfinal exit (extra time, to Spain, who won the whole thing) was the most encouraging German tournament in a decade. Now he arrives in America with a clearer team than any of his predecessors had — Joshua Kimmich anchoring, Florian Wirtz orchestrating, Kai Havertz leading the line, and Jamal Musiala (when fit) doing the things only Musiala can do.
The roster is younger than the German fan base is used to and the coach is younger than that. Whether it's enough to remind everyone what Germany used to be — that's the open question. The talent is here. The history is heavy. Twelve years is a long time to wait for a knockout-round win.
Week 1 Update: Germany 7, Curaçao 1 — and whatever anxiety remained about group-stage exits just got buried under a historic scoreline. Wirtz orchestrated, Musiala dazzled, and the four-time champions looked like the version of themselves their fans have been waiting twelve years to see. It was Curaçao, not France, but the intent was unmistakable. Germany are here to remind everyone what the shirt means.
Matchday 2 Update: Germany 2, Ivory Coast 1 — and the four-time champions are through to the Round of 32 with a game to spare. Deniz Undav is the story of this group: a bench option in Matchday 1 who came on to score and assist twice against Curaçao, then started against the Elephants and buried a brace to overturn a deficit. Five goal contributions in two matches. Nine goals scored as a team. Nagelsmann's side aren't just avoiding group-stage embarrassment — they look like a team that remembers what it used to be.
Matchday 3 Update: Germany 1, Ecuador 2 — and the four-time champions limp into the knockouts after getting beaten by a team they should have buried. Still top Group E on goal difference (+6 to Ivory Coast's +2), but the 7-1 demolition of Curaçao feels like a different tournament now. Two unconvincing performances in a row. Nagelsmann's side looked complacent and Ecuador punished every bit of it. The knockout rounds will demand a version of Germany that hasn't shown up since Matchday 1.
Round of 32 (June 29): Germany 1, Paraguay 1 — and then Paraguay 4, Germany 3 on penalties, and something historic happened in the worst possible way for German football. Julio Enciso gave La Albirroja the lead on the stroke of halftime; Kai Havertz replied in the 54th. Through extra time, through a Jonathan Tah goal that VAR wiped away for a foul — and then the shootout. Germany had never lost a World Cup penalty shootout. Not in 1982, not in 1986, not in 1990, not in 2006. They did it now. Paraguay, 16 years in the wilderness, delivered the most stunning result of the Round of 32, and Germany go home carrying a record that can never be clean again.