Germany used to be the team you didn't have to worry about. Four titles, eight finals, the most ruthlessly consistent program in the sport for half a century. Then 2018 happened — group stage exit in Russia, last place behind South Korea. Then 2022 happened — group stage exit in Qatar, knocked out the same day Japan beat Spain. Two of the last three tournaments, the four-time champions have not made the Round of 16. That is the sentence that frames everything.
Julian Nagelsmann took the job in 2023 with a mandate to rebuild without the benefit of a rebuild. His Euro 2024 quarterfinal exit (extra time, to Spain, who won the whole thing) was the most encouraging German tournament in a decade. Now he arrives in America with a clearer team than any of his predecessors had — Joshua Kimmich anchoring, Florian Wirtz orchestrating, Kai Havertz leading the line, and Jamal Musiala (when fit) doing the things only Musiala can do.
The roster is younger than the German fan base is used to and the coach is younger than that. Whether it's enough to remind everyone what Germany used to be — that's the open question. The talent is here. The history is heavy. Twelve years is a long time to wait for a knockout-round win.