Cowboys Record Predictions, a Toothy Schedule Twist & the Joe Milton Outrage | Just Wondering
Cowboys season predictions kick off this episode as Norm Hitzges breaks down the schedule, key concerns at offensive tackle and cornerback, and why the NFC East race could hinge on games against the Giants, Washington, and Arizona. Plus, the fallout from Dallas cutting quarterback Joe Milton, the Tyler Smith thumb injury and trade speculation, and a look at NFL coaching hires around the league. Norm also covers the Clippers salary cap scandal and Kawhi Leonard punishment, and explains why Stan Kroenke’s purchase of the Angels spells trouble for the Texas Rangers.
Chapters
00:00:00 – Introduction: Cowboys season preview and episode overview
Norm previews the episode focused on Cowboys predictions and NFL notes ahead of the season opener.
00:01:36 – Predicting the Cowboys’ 2025 Record
Norm examines the Cowboys’ recent history and sets up his season prediction.
00:03:24 – Breaking Down the Schedule Difficulty
A closer look at how schedule strength rankings are calculated and why Dallas’s slate is tougher than it appears.
00:05:54 – Key Concerns: Offensive Line, Pass Rush, and Cornerback
Norm outlines roster weaknesses at tackle, edge rusher, and cornerback heading into the season.
00:08:09 – Final Record Prediction and Season Stakes
Norm gives his win total prediction and explains why anything under nine wins would be a disaster.
00:10:32 – NFL Landscape: NFC vs AFC Strength
A league-wide look at which conference is stronger and how that affects Dallas’s outlook.
00:12:36 – Tyler Smith Injury and Cap Space Moves
Discussion of Tyler Smith’s thumb surgery and Dallas restructuring contracts to create cap space.
00:14:40 – Pending Free Agents and Trade Speculation
Norm lists upcoming free agents and possible trade targets like Maxx Crosby or Christian Gonzalez.
00:16:23 – The Joe Milton Quarterback Controversy
A breakdown of Sam Howell winning the QB3 job and the fan backlash over Joe Milton’s release.
00:18:49 – Schottenheimer’s Messaging Problem
Norm critiques how positive coach comments about cut players create fan confusion and frustration.
00:23:39 – NBA Punishes the Clippers for Cap Circumvention
Details on the league’s harsh penalties against the Clippers and questions about Kawhi Leonard’s light punishment.
00:25:58 – NFL’s Head Coaching Diversity Problem
An underreported story about the lack of diversity among the league’s newly hired head coaches.
00:27:20 – Stan Kroenke’s Sports Empire Expands
Kroenke’s purchase of the Angels highlights his dominant multi-league ownership portfolio and its implications for the Rangers.
Read Transcript
With the opening of the NFL season this weekend, just wondering this week will consist mostly of cowboys information, including a tentative guess at the record and what the NFL looks like, and later at the end, three sports notes, two of them getting big coverage and a third one that should. And now a word from our title sponsor. Eying retirement? We aim to turn your nest egg into a paycheck with half the amount you've been led to believe. Fluent Financial combines in house portfolio design risk management with income generating investments designed to aid your financial independence. Our goal is to develop an effective portfolio strategy to help you retire sooner and have a better lifestyle. Fluent Financial can also implement a program that allows business owners to install a cash balance plan, which may potentially reduce income tax payments. You've worked hard to become successful. Let us help develop an effective portfolio strategy that works for you. Learn more today about Fluent Financial. Retire sooner, better lifestyle. For more information or to schedule a meeting, visit fluentfinancial.com or call (972) 852-4800. It's time to play everyone's favorite game in the DFW area on Labor Day weekend, predicting the Cowboys season record. This is a team with a pretty good vibe to it these days, a new defensive coordinator who's impressed everybody, a draft that brought some kids that looked like they could play, and trades to add some veterans. The Cowboys though are a team coming off two seven win seasons. The last time the Cowboys had back to back under 500 records in a season, That was from 2000 or 2002, the famous or notorious Dave Campo era when the Cowboys went in three years, five and eleven, five and eleven, and five and eleven. Now that's consistency. They have a scary history. They last played in the Super Bowl after the 1995 season. That was also the last time they even made it to an NFC championship game. In the last thirty years, 1996 to the present, the Cowboys have won five playoff games and never two playoff wins in the same postseason, and their record in the playoffs the last thirty years, five and thirteen. Any attempt to predict predict any team season record must start by giving a good hard look at the schedule. Now the people who do this say Dallas has the twelfth easiest schedule in league this year, that's great. Hold on a minute. Let's look at the way they calculate these things. They take the 17 teams the Cowboys are gonna play this year, and they add up all their records from last year, and thus they determine an opponent's winning percentage, and that's how they get that Dallas has the twelfth easiest schedule. Woah, a minute. First, the picture is skewed by the fact that last year, this year's schedule, last year the Cowboys played five games against teams that are woeful, two against the Giants who won just four games, but the Giants have a new head coach, John Harbaugh, and are rejuvenated. They played two games against Washington, they were terrible, but wait a minute, They didn't have their starting quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who's back and healthy this year, and they played a game against Arizona that won three games, and Arizona still stinks. Once you put those three five games aside, two Washington, two Giants, and one Arizona this year, you then look at the other 12 games, and it is loaded with monsters. Dallas plays seven games against teams that won 11 games or more last year. Rams, Seattle, Philly, Houston, teams like that. You could celebrate the schedule when you thought it was the twelfth easiest, but if you recalibrate the schedule, the people who do that think Dallas has one of the five toughest schedules in the league, but Dallas seems rejuvenated. They they seem to be in a better spot. The defense is gonna be a lot better, and the offense is still terrific. Now do you still have concerns? You bet. Let's start with offensive tackle, where the starters are Terrence Geyton Terrence Neal and Tyler Geyton, and and that does not engender a lot of celebration in you. Now the Cowboys picked up Roderick Jones in a deal with Pittsburgh, but he doesn't exactly light my candle either. That's a position to watch. Next, the pass rush. The Cowboys signed Von Miller a couple of weeks ago in camp. Von Miller's had a fantastic Hall of Fame career, but he's 37 years old now, and he's gonna be a part time player. Now he did have nine sacks last year for Buffalo, but isn't jest a little suspicious to be depending on a 37 year old who was on the street until late August to be a key member of your pass rush? Hey, it might happen, but what if the pass rush isn't terrific? That brings me to my third concern, cornerback. Cowboys are not deep there. They got Kobe Bryant, they signed from the Rams in a one year $55,500,000 deal, and Durran Bland at the other. Yes. Bland has been hurt the last couple of years, but you know what? He's also been honestly very mediocre the last couple of years. Behind them is the kid Siobhan Raval, and behind him is trouble. But, you know, even the best of teams have holes, have concerns, as long as the Cowboys have relative good health. I see Dallas perhaps ten and seven, maybe even eleven and six in winning the NFC East. I said maybe. But remember those five months from last year's schedule? Two Giants, two Washington, and one Arizona game? The Cowboys lost two of those games. They lost to the Giants and Carolina. That cannot happen this year. Good heavens, the Cowboys have to take advantage of those weaker teams and sweep those games. By the way, they start with the Giants, and they're a very small favorite on the road this weekend. But I I see a pretty good season for the Cowboys. On the flip side, anything less than nine wins is a total freaking disaster for this club. Disaster. Next, let's look at the big picture of the NFL, and then more cowboy notes, including the country of controversy over a third string quarterback. What do you want from your favorite restaurant? Fantastic personal service, a cheery, welcoming, spotless atmosphere, and of course, great food. The primest of beef, Wagyu, and lamb, incredibly fresh seafood, lobster, salmon, shrimp, hall of fame food from a hall of fame restaurant, two locations of Bob's Steak and Chop House, the original Bob's on Lemon Avenue, and the gorgeous new Bob's at Craig Ranch McKinney. Do you bet on football? I'm Norm Hitskas, and I've been handicapping sports for the last five decades, and what an incredible last two years we've had picking games. For all of our college and pro football selections, plus the NCAA basketball tournament, we've posted a wonderful five twenty seven winners and four thirty four losers. After subtracting the juice, if you're a $200 a game player, that's a tidy profit of right at $10,000. And unlike those big betting services, we don't cost an arm and a leg. $200. That's it. $200 for the entire package of football and basketball picks. Email right to you every week. Sign up by clicking on the link below, and let's have another solid profitable year. The inspection of the NFL this year yields a little more good news for the Cowboys. The NFC appears to be weaker than the AFC. Oh, there's good teams in the NFC. I'm not saying this is some cakewalk in the playoffs for the Cowboys. There's the Rams, Seattle, and San Francisco, and Philadelphia, and the AFC North has a lot of good teams, but is there a very good team? Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago, Minnesota, but the AFC has Buffalo, New England, Baltimore, Houston, Denver, Kansas City, and then other scary teams like Cincinnati, Jacksonville, the Chargers, Indianapolis, by the way, Indy's now healthy. The the NFC, in fact, any place, teams can jump up one year like the Bears and the Patriots did last year. Now each of those played fairly soft schedules, and they can descend just as quickly the next year, like maybe the Bears and the Patriots because their schedules have gotten much tougher. The Rams are the favorite to win the Super Bowl, not that that means much these days because I think ten, eleven, 12, or more teams I could see possibly winning the Super Bowl. I didn't see Seattle last year, and I I don't know if you did, but I didn't. Now would the Cowboys be one of those teams? Well, the injury to Tyler Smith where he needs surgery on his thumb is gonna be out four to six weeks. Already clouds that a little bit. Now, I'm a little bothered by this situation here. This thumb apparently has been bothering Tyler Smith for a while, and he tried to avoid surgery, but that decision to avoid is gonna cost him several weeks of the season. Now, I know you have questions, I have questions. Why wasn't surgery done several weeks ago where he'd be ready for the season? Believe me, those questions are gonna continue to be asked, but as long as he's back and healthy five or six weeks in the season, it hey, and as long as this isn't an injury filled NFL season for the Cowboys, Who knows? Lots of teams have a chance, and they're one of them. Next, Dallas last week redid the contracts of Kenny Clark, Doron Bland, and Jake Ferguson. They created $30,000,000 more in cap space right now, and immediately that started fueling speculation that Dallas might be ready to make a trade, and by the way, they could make a trade, and they could acquire virtually any player of any salary, and the most mentioned one is the Vegas tie down, or defensive end and pass rusher, Max Crosby. Now, I like Max Crosby, I think he's a good player, and he would help a Cowboys need, or they could trade for cornerback Christian Gonzalez in New England, currently embroiled in a contract dispute with the Patriots. I would really like that by the way, or the Cowboys could do nothing with the money, But why why do nothing? Because the NFL rules allow you to carry over unused cap space into the next season, and Dallas has lots of contract challenges coming after this season. The big name on the free agents to be list is, of course, George Pickens, but there are other very important players whose contracts run out after the season. Starters like Demarviano Overshun, the linebacker, safety Malik Hooker, they may let him go, Cornerback Kobe Durant, who signed for only one year and 5,500,000 here. Wide receiver, Ryan Florno, who's played himself into a himself into a big role. Edge rusher Von Miller, number one inside offensive line backup TJ Bass, who will now start with the injured Tyler Smith, gone for a few weeks. Offensive tackle Broderick Jones that Dallas just acquired from Pittsburgh, and backup running back Malik Davis. Still others like key reserves, PJ Lock, second quarterback Sam Howell, the Dallas Edge rusher James Houston, middle linebacker Dee Winters, who's a probable starter here, punter Brian Anger. Yes, Dallas has lots of ways to use the money right now, be it a trade, or be it next year's signed players. Next, I can't remember that when there was a big controversy over a number three quarterback. Sam Howell and Joe Milton competed during a training camp. It was close, but Howell got the job, I think based on the fact that he'd been a starter for a full season in the NFL before. Dallas expect was expected to carry three quarterbacks, but then they suddenly released Joe Milton. There was outrage. It it tore through cowboy nation. How could they do that? It was stupid. Somebody else will pick him up. There were even people who posted that they thought Milton was gonna take Dak Prescott's job away. Don't think so. And the reaction was crazy though. No one claimed Joe Milton, and he re signed with the practice squad, he's back with the Cowboys, but let's let's look at the history here. I don't wish to be unkind Joe Milton, but here's the story. He started his career at Michigan where he's a backup for two years and transferred to Tennessee where he wound up backing up a good quarterback, Herndon Hooker, for a year, and then he started his senior year. The word on Joe Melton was he was athletic and raw, which is what we saw in cowboy camp. He lasted until the sixth round of the draft where he was taken by the New England Patriots, but after seeing him for just one year despite the fact that he would have remained a very cheap backup quarterback, New Orleans put him out on the trade market, and Dallas gave up a number five to get him, they got back a number seven in the trade. In '25, he sat behind Dak Prescott throwing 24 passes on the year, and Wingman he threw 29 the year before. Dallas signed Howell because they thought they needed more help at backup quarterback. Eventually, after trying to trade Milton, they traded him, but no one one bid on the trade, and no one bid on him when he was out there free, and he's now back with the Cowboys. Hey, Joe Milton might eventually have a nice career in this league, but for right now, the league has spoken about their opinion of Joe Milton. Maybe one of the things fueling the fire over Joe Milton's release was the head coach's words. I like Brian Schottenheimer, I kind of wish he'd move in next door, I'd love him as a neighbor. He seems to be a stand up guy, he says things very nice things about his players, they seem to like him, but maybe that's one of the problems here. Maybe people hear all the nice things about players, and then they see them dropped. The initial camp was supposed to be a combination of tackle for Tyler Guyton and Nate Thomas, that ended in three days, and they shuffled Thomas over to right tackle where Brian Schottenheimer said nice things about his improvement, yada yada, and then they traded him to Pittsburgh where Brian Schottenheimer said he thought he'd have a good career. And running back, all sorts of nice things were said about Jaden Blue, that he'd mature, that he was more committed, he'd improved, the word was great thrown around, and then he was cut, and he didn't come back to Dallas in the practice squad, he's down with Philadelphia Eagle practice squadron. Same thing said about Phil Mafa, the other running back, and he's gone also. I know what Schottie's trying to do when it's noble, encourages players, say good things, promote progress, get players to believe in themselves. The problem is the fans hear it and they begin to believe it too. Then when Milton gets dumped or Thomas is gone and so are Blue and Maffa, the fans find it hard to understand when just a week or two ago, they kept hearing such glowing terms about those players from the head coach. Stolen water media is making a move. After two plus years, it's time to change and keep up with our growth. You can continue to view all eight of our podcasts on our Patreon pages. But now you can get all episodes at www.stolenwatermedia.com. This is a developing story, but you can begin by watching and listening right now at www.stolenwatermedia.com. Continue to find all audio wherever you find your favorite podcasts, and some you may not have heard of, but I think will enjoy. Are you just wondering where your next spectacular vacation will be? Relax. Feel the sun on your body. Let your cares melt away at the all inclusive Cerenian Bay Resort in Southern Belize. It's literally built right on the sand. The ocean, your ocean is just a few barefoot steps away. Laid back luxury, terrific food, a swim up bar, a spa, air conditioned gym, unimaginable service, fishing, snorkeling in gorgeous turquoise waters. Do you want relaxation or do you need adventure? You choose at Ceridian Bay. Mary and I have been there three times, and this summer will be number four. Take a cozy bungalow for two or bring the whole family to villas that can accommodate up to 14. Sirenianbay.com, S I R E N I A N. The sand and the sea are just waiting for you to get here. My wife Mary is the co creator of Full Moon Healing Balm, And I guess I'm the reason this terrific cream was developed. A few years ago, I began getting these huge, ugly blood blotches just beneath the skin of my arms and hands. The condition's called senile purpura. And no, you don't have to be senile to experience this embarrassment. It happens as you age. And then to cover it up, we begin wearing long sleeves, even when it's hot. It took two years working with a New Jersey lab to refine the all natural ingredients of full moon healing. Gently massage a very small amount into the skin, and within a day, the blotches begin to fade. See now, purpura usually takes weeks to disappear. But this bomb cuts the timeline to about a week. And ordering's so easy. Just go to the website, fullmoonhealingco.com. Finally, three sports notes. Two of them have made headlines. The other one should've. The NBA caught the LA Clippers cheating on the salary cap, and they came down on them with a punishment fitting the wrath of God. When the Clippers signed terrific free agent forward Kawhi Leonard as part of the deal, under the table, the Clippers helped arrange other endorsement deals for Leonard that greatly increased the value of him being there, actually by tens of millions of dollars. That league ruled was a blatant attempt to circumvent the salary cap, so they landed on the Clippers with both feet. First, they took away five future first round draft choices. The Clippers no longer have a first round pick from 2029 through 2033. They also suspended the owner, Steve Ballmer, for a year. He can't have anything to do with his Clipper franchise, and they fined him $30,000,000, which if you know Steve Ballmer, that's chump change, and they suspended two of the team's executives, one for the full year, and one for a half year. But a very, very real question remains here. They fined Kawhi Leonard only $700,000 Wait a minute, why not a fine of $20,000,000, or maybe $10,000,000, and twenty game suspension without pay? Hey, Leonard and his agent knew exactly what they were doing. They were a full part of it. They were attempting to cheat, so why didn't the lead punish them? Next, the underreported story. In the off season, 10 NFL teams changed head coaches. Here are those 10 new NFL coaches. For six of them, it's their first head coaching stint ever. For Stefanski and Salah, they get second chances with hopes that this one will turn out better than their first one. And Harbaugh and McCarthy, they are veterans. Each has won a Super Bowl, but besides being guys with new head coaching gigs, these 10 have one other thing in common. They are all white, all white men. In a league that's 70% black or maybe even a little more. Somehow, this just seems badly out of whack, but there is one other area in the NFL that is jam packed with white men. That's every Sunday in the owner's suites around the league. And finally, do you know the name of Stan Kroenke? He is the biggest sports owner in America, and the most successful. Last week, he completed his picture of franchises owned by paying $4,000,000,000 for the Los Angeles Angels. Kroenke already owned the NFL Los Angeles Rams, the favorite to win this year's Super Bowl, the NBA Denver Nuggets, annually, one of the top contenders for the title, the NFL Colorado Avalanche, one of the best hockey teams in North America, the Major Soccer League Colorado Rapids, the National Lacrosse League Colorado Mammoth, that is right now number two in standings, and finally, Arsenal of the English Premier Soccer League, currently tied for first place early in the season. Kroenke has two Super Bowl rings, two NHL Stanley Cups, one NBA title, a championship of the Major Soccer League, two national lacrosse league titles, and Arsenal won the English Premier League last season. How rich is Stan Kroenke? Well, add one more thing. He's married to Anne Walton, the daughter of the founder of Walmart. And now he owns the Angels, and this is bad news for the Texas Rangers. The Angels have been a dependable doormat in the American League West for years now, but it's now a Kroenke franchise, and Stan Kroenke spends money and he wins championships. And now a word from our title sponsor. Today's episode has been brought to you by Fluent Financial, retire earlier, live better. And by Bob's Steak and Chophouse on Lemon in Dallas and in Craig Ranch in McKinney. Bob's, a Dallas tradition for more than thirty years. If you've enjoyed just wondering, please hit follow and a fresh new episode will land in your mailbox early every Monday, Wednesday and Friday morning. Should you know a sports fan who might like our work? Please share our contact information with that person. Thanks for listening to today's episode of Just Wondering. I'm Norm Hitschkes, and know that every day I'll be just wondering about something. And I'm Mary Hitchkiss, and I'll just be wondering too. This is a Stolen Water Media production.