Japan walks into 2026 as the team that beat Germany and Spain at the same World Cup and still went home in the Round of 16. That is the entire story of modern Japanese soccer in one sentence: a national team that has clearly figured out how to play a top European side in a one-off match, and has not yet figured out how to do it twice in a row when the stakes are highest.
Hajime Moriyasu — soft-spoken, methodical, the longest-tenured manager in Japanese national team history — gets to try again. The squad is the most talented Japan has ever produced. Mitoma and Kubo on the wings, both starring in Europe. Kamada in midfield. Tanaka pulling strings at Leeds. A defense built around Tomiyasu when he's fit and Endo when he plays. A goalkeeper situation that Moriyasu still hasn't quite settled. They qualified out of Asia without losing a match.
The 2022 storyline was the comebacks — down a goal to Germany, then scoring twice in eight minutes; down to Spain, same trick. They proved they belong on this stage. The 2026 question is whether they can finally win the second knockout match — the one Japanese soccer has been chasing since 2002, when Asia's only modern semifinalists were South Korea, on home soil. Group B with Spain and Brazil and Iran will not make it easy.